Saturday, December 29, 2012

Four Downs: A look back at week 16 and The Final Week of the Season

This is a special edition of Four Downs in which I will go over all the teams that have either made the playoffs or can make the playoffs based on scenarios heading into the final week. The things we know so far:

1) The Atlanta Falcons have clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
2) All 6 teams and 4 Divisions have been accounted for in the AFC with the order just up for grabs.
3) The Indianapolis Colts are the 5th seed and the Cincannati Bengals are the 6th seed.
4) The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins battle for the division on Sunday Night.
5) If the Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers at home they are in.


Last week we saw the formidable Pittsburgh Steelers get knocked out of the playoffs in front of a home crowd. The Cincinnati Benglas or (Bane as they should be known) destroyed Heinz Field and terrorized the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger threw another costly interception with 30 ticks left remaining in the game and the score tied at 10. In fact the only scoring touchdown the Bengals scored was a pick-six by Leon Hall while A.J. Green caught 10 passes for 116 yards. No question the Bengals are a better team then last year and two consecutive playoff appearances is huge from an organization that has struggled to make the playoffs. The team however, will go only as far as Andy Dalton and their stingy defense go. They have had a rollercoaster of a year with win streaks and losing streaks and week 17 against the Ravens, is the perfect opportunity for the Bengals to show they are for real.

While that was going on the Indianapolis Colts not only clinched a playoff spot but a year after winning just two games, there is some real consideration for Bruce Arians and Andrew Luck as Coach and Rookie of the Year respectively. What Arians has done coming out of retirement from Pittsburgh and stepping in for an ill Chuck Pagano has truly been one of the best stories from the NFL this year. Andrew Luck came in with high expectations but no one could have imagined a 10 or even an 11 win season. As great as the Colts have been, most of their wins have been at home with there only road wins against Tennessee, Detroit, KC and Jax all teams with 5 wins or less. They will have to find some more magic and go on the road in a tough game against either New England or Baltimore.

In the NFC despite a Dallas Cowboys loss to the New Orleans Saints in overtime Tony Romo and Dez Bryant will play for the NFC East Division this week against the Washington Redskins. The reason being is that the NY Giants got hammered by the Baltimore Ravens and can only make the playoffs if Dallas, Chicago and Minnesota all lose. The Cowboys would win the tiebreaker over the Redskins based on common games record which is the 3rd thing taken in account behind 1. Head-To-Head and 2. Best W/L record within division. They would be tied in the first two and based on the common games against the AFC (4) and NFC South (4) Dallas has the edge 5-4.

The Minnesota Vikings not only kept their playoff hopes alive but put themselves in the driving seat after beating the Houston Texans on the road. I had the Texans dusting up the Vikings and in fact it was the other way around and Adrian Peterson didn’t even have over 100yds rushing. Jared Allen wasn't 100 percent but the rest of the defense including underrated safety and possibly Defensive ROY Harrison Smith stepped up. If the Vikings beat the Packers this week, not only would the clinch a wild-card berth but they would most likely be facing Green Bay at Lambeau the following week.While the Chicago Bears easily took care of the Arizona Cardinals and with a win against Detroit and a Vikings loss the Bears would be the 6th seed, but this is after a 7-1 start

This is what makes football exciting people, there are multiple scenarios for teams vying for a playoff, a home berth, seeding it all matters. Everything will be clear after the final game of the season is played around 11:45 and we can start gearing up for the playoffs. I just can't believe that it's already week 17.

Bold Prediction: Christian Ponder plays a good game. He's done it before against the Packers.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Four Downs: A look back at week 15

It was “Statement Sunday” in the NFL last weekend and the biggest wiiner was the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers and Colin Kapernick shocked the NFL world by scoring 41 points against New England, in Foxbourough and winning. Also, in the NFC East there is a 3-way tie at the top with Washington, Dallas and New York all (8-6).

First Down: “Colin Kaepernick” Since his debut on Monday Night against the Chicago Bears on November 19th, Colin Kaepernick has been a stud for the San Francisco 49ers. He has won 4 of his 5 starts with the lone loss coming in overtime against the St.Louis Rams. This past weekend in the game of the week the 49ers flew to Foxborough to face Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Brady had been perfect in December at home until the 49ers and Jim Harbaugh rolled in. The 49ers controlled most of the game on both sides of the ball jumping out to an early 31-3 lead. That was until the 4th, when the Patriots scored 28 unanswered points to tie the game. On the ensuing kick after New England had tied it, LaMichael James returned the ball past mid-field and on the very next play Kaepernick found Michael Crabtree for a 38-yard touchdown, which ultimately made the difference in a 41-34 win. Kapernick finished with 4 touchdown passes and one pick. While New England basically threw away a shot at home-field advantage. This week also on Sunday night the 49ers face a difficult road game against Pete Carroll Seattle Seahawks in what would see the winner take the division.

Second Down: “Massacre in Atlanta” Statement Sunday saw the NY Giants and Atlanta Falcons battle it out, in a rematch of last year’s NFC Wildcard game. Just like last year’s game it was a dud with one team way outperforming the other. However, this time around it was the Falcons who were at home, laying down the beatdown. The Falcons defense picked off Eli Manning twice, including the first play of the game in a 34-0 blowout, putting the Giants in a tough situation. The Falcons solidified themselves home-field advantage but nothing ever goes right for Atlanta in the playoffs so we shall see going forward what will happen. If there is one thing that Sunday showed us it is that these Falcons are not like the past. Their defense hits hard, their secondary plays good coverage, Jacquizz Rodgers is a nice “change of pace” back and Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are a tough trio to contain. It’s going to come down to execution and Matt Ryan.


Third Down: “Pack it Up” After eight games the Green Bay Packers had already lost two more games then they had all last season. What was even more of a concern was that the Chicago Bears were flying to a 7-1 start and their defense was playing out of their minds. Since then the Packers have won 5 of 6 and the Bears have lost 5 of 6. Last Sunday, at Soldier Field the Bears needed to stop the freefall and try to hold on to the division with a win over the Packers. Unfortunatley, Aaron Rodgers, James Jones and Clay Matthews had something to say about that and single-handedly beat the Bears 21-13. Jay Culter was constantly bombarded with pressure and no one besides Brandon Marshall (who set a Bears franchise record for receptions) could catch a ball. The Bears still control their destiny and with winnable games against Arizona and Detroit the Bears should be in it until the end. However, overlooking opponents have been costly to teams this year and even a Ryan Lindley led Cardinals team can surprise you on an off day, and the Bears have had too many off-days. If the Bears fail to make the playoffs again, especially after their hot start expect many changes coming including coach and QB and oh yeah, Brian Urlacher is out again.

Fourth Down: “The Embarrassing NY Jets and Mark Sanchez” I really am at a loss for words when it comes to the NY Jets and their franchise. They bring in Tim “the terrific” Tebow only to have him sell jerseys and sit on the bench. On Monday Night, against a weak Tennessee Titans squad the Jets defense played strong but their offense was beyond atrocious. The Jets had chances and Mark Sanchez just dropped the ball (literally!) So with the Jets season over, people were expecting Tim Tebow to step in but it appears that all along Greg McElroy (the supposed 3rd stringer) was the real back up and will get the start this week against the Chargers. That in itself depicts how bad the season has gotten for the Jets squad.

BOLD PREDICTION: My CJ Spiller prediction last week was a little too much, but I believe this week that Jay Cutler will get sacked more times then completions to Brandon Marshall.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Four Downs: A look back at week 14

In what should have been, the game of the week the New England Patriots solidified themselves as the top team in the AFC after dismantling the Houston Texans. While the Chicago Bears have major issues they need to sort out if they want to make the playoffs.


First Down: “An Emotional Win” Everyone around Valley Ranch, TX would tell you that this was a must win game for the Dallas Cowboys and their opponent was no slouch. The Cincinnati Bengals had been having an up-and-down season but were riding a 4-game winning streak; but no one could have forseen what would transpired before that. Nose Tackle Josh Brent got into a car accident and killed practice squad member and very close friend Jerry Brown Jr. 48 hours later and the Cowboys had to play a tough road game with emotions riding high. The Bengals controlled for the most part of the game, and were up 9 points in the final quarter. However, Tony Romo led an emotional charged team to ten 4th quarter points including a GW Dan Bailey FG to beat the Bengals 20-19. The win was big it masked the real problem between Brent and Brown Jr. The Cowboys have two tough but winnable home games against Pittsburgh (this week) and New Orleans and wrap the season up on the road against RGIII.

Second Down: “I am Still the Master” Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are the only two people remaining from their dynasty run at the beginning of the millennium. Since then, their has been a lot of moving pieces that have been added to a team that has reached the Super Bowl twice out of the last four years, (and lost both). This year “The Brady Bunch” are at it again with tight end Rob Gronkowski leading the charge for most of the season before a serious injury. Since then guys like Julian Edelman, Donte Stallworth had stepped up, but both are now on Injured Reserve. Brandon Lloyd and tight end Aaron Hernandez are solid with ol’ reliable Wes Welker in the slot. On Monday Night in a battle of the top teams in the AFC the Patriots showed once again why there are not just the best home team in the AFC but the best team in general. Brady threw 4 touchdown passes and was nearly flawless against the Texans stingy defense. The Patriots defense stepped up and was the better of the two; neutralizing Arian Foster, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Patriots have already clinched their division and have a 1st round bye in the sights.

Third Down: “Oh My, Lions, Dolphins and Bears” Unfortunately there are no Tigers in football but on Sunday the Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins and probably the most shocking of all the Chicago Bears all lost. Detroit fought hard but the conditions at Lambeau Field were just too much in a 27-20 losing effort. The Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill stayed in it for most of the game against the SF 49ers until Colin Kapernick ran 50 yards in to the endzone with under 3 to play. Dolphins lose 27-13 and then there are the Chicago Bears. A few weeks ago, they were looking dangerous, unstoppable and in control of their own destiny. Since then the Bears have lost 4 of 5 and face Green Bay this week. It was last week however with a depleted defense that could not stop "All Day" Peterson and the Vikings Minnesota Vikings. Peterson ran for 154 yards and 2 scores as the Vikings won 21-14. That is with Christian Ponder throwing for 91 yards and Jay Cutler getting constant pressure. The Bears are now in 6th in the AFC as the Seattle Seahawks also at (8-5) have the tie-breaker. The Bears do have the Cardinals and Lions to finish the season off but it will be all playoff mode from hear on if the Bears want to make it.

Fourth Down: “Kirk Cousins?” If a tie in football is considered kissing your sister, what does losing to a Cousin mean? In all seriousness the game of the week saw RGIII play a motivational game and put his team in the best position to win against a tough Baltimore Ravens squad. Unfotunately, Griffin was not on the field when the Redskins tied it, that was Kirk Cousins a 4rd pick from this years past draft. Cousins only threw the ball twice and completed both passes, one of which was a TD pass to Pierre Garcon from 11 yards to cut it to 28-26. On the 2-PT Convert Cousins ran it in untouched. In OT the Ravens punted the ball and it was returned inside Ravens territory. Cousins handed the ball off a few more tims and Kai Forbath hit a GW 34 yard FG for the 31-28 win. The Redskins faced a Ravens defense without Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs, but it was still a huge win and kept them in the playoff race.



Bold predicition: C.J. Spiller will have more combined yards then the Seattle Seahawks offense will have in total.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Four Downs: A look back at week 13

Each week we get closer to see who will be the twelve particpants in this year’s dance. So far we know that the Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos have all clinched their divisions while the Houston Texans just need one more win to seal their division and possibly home-field advantage as well.

First Down: “The BATCH man” 38-year old Charlie Batch did what most 38 year old men DON’T do and that is win a football game. After losses to Baltimore and Cleveland, Batch had one more outing to prove that he can still play football. If you were to tell me that Charlie Batch would throw for 100 more passing yards then his counterpart Joe Flacco and beat the Baltimore Ravens, I’d say you were nuts, but that is exactly what happened. Batch outplayed Flacco and the Steelers defense with the return of Troy Polamalu was better then ever in a 23-20 stunning road win. Batch led his team to 10 points in the fourth quarter including a drive that ended with a Shaun Suisham game winning field goal as time expired and oh yeah Ray Rice got no touches in the fourth quarter. The Steelers should look at it as a blessing to have won 1 of 3 without Big Ben and with his return the Pittsburgh Steelers could be gearing up for a playoff run.

Second Down: “Those Darn Detroit Lions” Some in the media said that the Detroit Lions would be better then last year as they take the next step forward. I did say the Lions would make the playoffs at the beginning of last year and they did, but this year teams were prepared for the Lions and took more notice and I didn't feel that they had the personnel to respond. The Lions have not shown any resistance and my premontion of them not making them the playoffs has become true. The Lions besides Calvin Johnson are not what they once were. The defense is atrocious, Ndamukong Suh has been in the headlines for all the wrong reason, Jim Schwartz literally costed his team a win on thanksgiving and then what happened last Sunday may have been the straw that broke the camels back. Many teams in the AFC wild card race were hoping for the Lions to beat an Indianapolis Colts that have been brutal on the road. While the Buffalo Bills were finishing up the Jaguars and the Jets and Bengals were winning; a 33-20 Lions lead with under 5 looked good and would ensure that those teams would move up a game. Until Andrew Luck connected with LaVon Brazil with just under 3 to play and then led the drive of the week and on fourth down and ten after the Lions went 3-and-out. Luck hit Donnie Avery who ran untouched into the end zone for the win as time expired in one of the most thrilling games of the year. Colts win 35-33, Luck plays amazing, they inch closer to the playoffs, Chuck Pagano is on his way back all signs are looking good to a team that won just 2 games all of last year. For the Lions they showed that they can't come up big when it matters most. It would be nice to see Megatron beat Jerry Rice's record for receiving yards.

Third Down: “You got to be kidding me” Just when you thought that the Seattle Seahawks had no chance on the road against the tough Chicago Bears they find a way to pull one out. Russell Wilson continues to have a great year at quarterback for the Seahawks who initially brought in Matt Flynn for a whole boatload of money to be their guy. Wilson coupled with one of the best defenses playing well resulted in 23-17 thrilling overtime win. He led the what should have been game winning drive when he hit Golden Tate for a touchdown with just 23 clicks left in the game. However, Jay Cutler somehow found Brandon Marshall deep to set up a Robbie Gould field goal. In overtime the Seahawks won the toss and drove 8 minutes and won the game on a Sidney Rice 13-yard reception. The Seahawks have been strong at home and have 3 of their last 4 at home. They also have tiebreakers on Green Bay *, Chicago, Dallas, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.

Fourth Down: “Just pure emotion” Although the playoffs are way out of reach, after what happened at Aarowhead Stadium with Linebacker Jovan Belcher taking his girlfriends life and then his, it was tough to play a football game. They took a poll and the passionate Chiefs fans wanted/needed football to help get them through this. If the Kansas City Chiefs showed any of that emotion they had on that field last Sunday earlier in the season, they would have a better record. Brady Quinn won his first game in the NFL in over three years and did not turn the ball over once. Quinn was solid throwing for 203 and 2 touchdowns and got help from Jamaal Charles who ran for 127-yards. Cam Newton was good too, but the Chiefs defense buckled down when it had too and came out on top 27-21 over the Carolina Panthers in their only home win of the season. This game will be a lone bright spot for the Cheifs, not because of the death of course but because of they way they overcame it, became a team and won a hard fought game.

Bold Prediction: Phillip Rivers will have more interceptions thrown then touchdowns.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Four Downs: A look back at week 12

This much is certain. The NFL playoffs are wide open. Just when you thought that teams were down and out like the Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins, they find themselves back in the hunt after a big win in week 12.

First Down: “Ryan Tannehill” Even though the Seattle Seahawks abysmal (1-4) record on the road anyone who would suggest that they would lay another egg in Miami; would be wrong. Quarterback Russell Wilson has played for the most part and has put the Seahawks in a good position for the playoff push. On the other hand the Miami Dolphins were losers of three straight and could not afford another home loss. In fact, it was the other rookie taken 67 spots ahead of Wilson that was the better of the two. Ryan Tannehill led his team on drives of 82,80 and 68 in the fourth quarter to lead his team to a comeback 24-21 win. The Dolphins have been a nice surprise this season but with two games against the New England Patriots (including this week) and a visit to the bay to face the 49ers, the playoffs will be nearly impossible to reach.


Second Down: “RGIII is the real deal!” Robet Griffin III has been a standout all season. Just like Cam Newton was last year Griffin (as well with Andrew Luck) have become rookie sensations. Griffin has showed poise, athleticism and a good arm over the first half of the season but it was his win on thanksgiving that may have changed the team’s fortunes. The Washington Redskins and Mike Shannahan are reaping the benefits, even after trading almost all their picks so that they could get their guy. Albeit that it his first year, Griffin was nearly perfect against the Dallas Cowboys in a 38-31 thanksgiving win. What is more impressive is that he threw for 311-yards and 4 touchdowns and had an off the scale QB rating of 132.6. Not only was the win against their most bitter rivals in their house but it was a game that got the Redskins back in the hunt. A win against the NY Giants at home on Monday night will put them in striking distance of the NFC East. While a lost would cripple any hope at that, with the slight chance at a wildcard.

Third Down: “Lame Cowboy” On the other hand the Dallas Cowboys needed the win, not just to be close to the Giants for the division, but for confidence going the rest of the way. The Cowboys have been awful at home (2-3), in fact ever since Jerry Jones built Jerry’s World; nothing has been good at home. The Cowboys needed to beat the Redskins and crush any hopes they had at the playoffs and it started well with the defense forcing a quick 3-and-out. Tony Romo had the ball in the red zone but could only manage a field goal. After that Griffin calmed down and went on an absolute tear, scoring 28 points in the fourth quarter. Romo threw the ball a career high 62 times because the running game behind Felix Jones has been anemic. The good news for Dallas is that Demarco Murray is back and will immediately improve the run game and they have 3 of their final 5 games at home against winnable teams. They first need to take care of Philadelphia on Sunday night on NBC Football.

Fourth Down: “Where is Percy?” It’s unfair to say, especially on a NFL team that one or two people make up a team but without Adrian Peterson or Percy Harvin the Minnesota Vikings are in serious trouble. No question about it, in my mind the Chicago Bears had that game EASILY. With Jay Cutler in the lineup they took care of business 28-10 dominating on both sides of the ball. The thing is, the Vikings are still in the hunt, they have snuck up on teams and played pretty good football with an average defense and a below average quarterback. That’s because Peterson is having a career year after suffering a major ACL injury last year, and Harvin is Superman. The Vikings just find ways to get the ball to Harvin weather it is on: Special teams, running the ball or quick screens, once Harvin touches the ball he is just thinking end zone. Harvin was having a career year with 62 receptions and 677-yards receiving, before going down. With two games against Green Bay and then Houston and Chicago the odds are not in their favour. In fact even with the Rams on the schedule I don’t think the Vikings will win another game all season and finish the season at (6-10).

BOLD PREDICITION WEEK 12: Adrian Peterson will have 4 touchdowns and over 150 yards rushing and still lose.